Economic Update, September 19, 2016

Phillip Allen Inc.

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“The man who says he is willing to meet you halfway is usually a poor judge of distance.”

– Laurence J. Peter

WEEKLY TIP
             
Just married? About to marry? Develop a plan to save jointly for your financial goals. If you both save for them, they may be attained more quickly.

WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
I am soft and seldom upright. I lose a head in the morning, but I get it back at night. What am I?
   
 
Last week’s riddle:
You contact it in the street, and lie above it in the night. It may shake as if it is angry, but it will never bite. What is it?
 
Last week’s answer:
The ground.

 

 

 

 

 

September 19, 2016

   

RETAIL SALES DECREASE SLIGHTLY
Shoppers bought 0.3% less goods and services in August, according to the latest monthly report from the Department of Commerce – but minus auto sales, the decline was just 0.1%. Retail sales were still up 1.9% from year-ago levels, with online sales rising 10.9% in 12 months.1
    
CONSUMER COSTS RISE IN AUGUST
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% after a flat July, with the core CPI up 0.3%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the headline and core CPI to respectively advance 0.1% and 0.2%. August brought no change whatsoever in the Producer Price Index, which had fallen 0.4% a month earlier. Speaking of production, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.4% dip in industrial output for August, a marked difference from July’s 0.6% gain.2
    
HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT INDEX SHOWS NO CHANGE
Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index displayed an initial September reading of 89.8, duplicating its final August mark. In September 2015, the index was at 87.2.3
  
ROLLERCOASTER WEEK LEAVES STOCKS HIGHER
Investors hardly bided their time waiting for next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision – last week was full of dramatic ups and downs. Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 2,139.16, gaining 0.53% in five days. Rising 0.21% for the week, the Dow industrials settled at 18,123.80 Friday; the Nasdaq advanced 2.31% last week to 5,244.57. Gasoline futures jumped 7.4% on the NYMEX during the week, while oil prices fell 6.2%; crude settled Friday at $43.03.4,5
   
THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Data on August housing starts and building permits will be revealed Tuesday, along with earnings from Adobe Systems, Carnival, FedEx, KB Home, and Lennar. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes its latest policy statement, with Fed chair Janet Yellen holding a subsequent press conference; in addition, Wall Street receives earnings news from Bed Bath & Beyond, CarMax, General Mills, Jabil Circuit, Red Hat, and Steelcase. Earnings from AutoZone and Rite Aid arrive Thursday, along with a new initial jobless claims report. Friday, Finish Line announces quarterly results.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA 4.01 8.27 11.49 5.68
NASDAQ 4.74 7.27 20 13.46
S&P 500 4.66 7.21 15.18 6.21
REAL YIELD 9/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.19% 0.73% 0.13% 2.38%

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/8/166,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

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 This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/gwvdd2w [9/15/16]
2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/16/16]
3 – sca.isr.umich.edu [9/16/16]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/16/16]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-market-braces-for-nigeria-libya-oil-2016-09-16 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/16/16]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/16/16]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/16/16]

 

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